Property in 2024
Retail sales tank
There's been plenty of guff written about the 'strength' in retail sales over recent months.
The reality is now gradually becoming apparent.
The November Black Friday surge in turnover was revised down in the latest figures.
Turnover then also fell -2.7 per cent in December in seasonally adjusted terms, taking monthly retail turnover all the way back down to 2022 levels at $35.2 billion (despite the record population growth since that time).
Reported the ABS:
Source: ABS
Of course, the real kicker is that these figures are measured in current prices, and the quarterly figures will show that retail volumes have been dropping for well over a year.
Now it's all about retail discounting to get customers through the door meaning lower prices ahead.
The UK is already experiencing this, with growth in the shop price inflation dropping to the lowest level in two years, up only 2.9 per cent over the past year.
James Foster ran through the latest detailed figures for Australia
here.
The Aussie household saving ratio has already fallen from 24 per cent at the highs to 1 per cent, and since monetary policy works with a lag, we'll soon be seeing the intense impact of higher mortgage rates on the economy.
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The inflation figures for the December quarter are due out on Wednesday morning, and are expected to record quarterly increase of around +0.8 per cent.
This would take annual inflation down to a 2-year low of around +4.3 per cent.
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