Unemployment rises
Employed significantly missed expectations in April, declining by -4,300, partly reversing the strong gains of the previous month.
Full-time employment gave back -27,100 jobs in April.
The number of unemployed persons increased +18,400 to 528,000, the highest in 11 months.
This was enough to take the unemployment rate up from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in the month.
It looks as the low unemployment rate for the cycle occurred around July to September 2022, with labour force pressures beginning to ease since then.
Not only is immigration running at a rapid pace now, there's also been the small matter of 375 basis points of monetary tightening since the start of May 2022, much of which has still to take effect.
New South Wales continues to operate as a powerhouse economy, with an unemployment rate of only 3.3 per cent set to pull in more workers.
Looking at what's coming for employment, it's notable that SEEK reported job ad volumes down -19 per cent from a year earlier as the market normalises.
Source: SEEK
The wrap
Overall, this was a significant downside miss to economist expectations of +25,000 jobs added and a flat unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent.
The outlook is as ever subject to change, of course, but most likely the implication is for interest rates to be paused in June and quite probably July, with the next quarterly inflation figures set to be released in the last week of July.
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James Foster chimes in with the detailed labour force figures analysis here.
