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Saturday 1 April 2023

US inflation continues to ease

Inflation expectations down


US PCE inflation eased further down to 5 per cent in the latest figures, down from the highs of 7 per cent in June 2022.


Charts from the charting king, Charlie Bilello:



It's never going to be a straight line down, but it was good to see core inflation rising by only +0.3 per cent over the month, which was lower than expected, and January was revised down. 


This brought core inflation down to +4.6 per cent over the year.


3-year ahead consumer inflation expectations fell to the lowest level in nearly 3 years, since June 2020.



Bond yields fell, and markets are loving this little surprise. 


PCE housing inflation is still remarkably high at over +8 per cent, but surely this is a lagging indicator which will drop in due course.