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Monday 21 November 2022

It's happening...

Inflation pukes

Yep, the inflationary 'belch' is passing...and it looks as though inflation is going to start falling fast.

It might take some time to hit the official figures, but it's surely in the post now.

US rents are now falling across most private sector measures (and rents have been a huge part of the US services inflation story). 


Elsewhere, there was a huge miss on producer prices in Germany, which fell by more than 4 per cent in October, for the biggest monthly drop in history (largely driven by energy-related costs). 


Of course, this partly reflects that Europe is sinking into a nasty recession, but it's also a sign of what's to come from an inflation perspective.

The inflation narrative will turn around over the coming months, and it will likely evaporate as fast as it appeared.

Hopefully we'll be talking about falling interest rates again sooner rather than later, after a brutal salvo of hikes. 

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11 days ago National Australia Bank made amendments to rental shading, which increased borrowing capacity by 8 per cent for some borrowers.


Today, Commonwealth Bank of Australia made tweaks to its HEM calculations, which will similarly increase borrowing capacity for some investors. 


Source: Eric Wu, broker channels

Unfortunately, many would-be borrowers are completely shut out of the market (or trapped in a mortgage prison on woeful mortgage rates) because of the extraordinary 300 basis points lending assessment buffer, which was introduced when the cash rate target was 10 basis points. 


Quite.