Population surge
Some interesting stats from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), with population growth in the first three months of 2022 roaring back to +124,200.
Source: ABS
In the September 2020 quarter Australia actually saw its population in decline for the first time since the ABS data series commenced 40-odd years ago.
The ABS also went on to report that net overseas migration over the year to March 2021 was negative (-94,300), with tens of thousands more departures than arrivals.
These have been unprecedented drops in the Aussie population through the pandemic.
Take a look at the pandemic plunge in temporary visa holders, for example.
As recently as the September 2021 quarter, Australia's total quarterly population growth was still only around +15,000.
But as the borders opened, quarterly growth rocketed back to +124,200 in the first three months of the calendar year - driven by a renewed burst of migration - taking total population growth over the year to March back up to +239,800 (or +0.9 per cent).
Source: ABS
To date the population pressures have largely been centred upon Queensland, driven by record net interstate migration and a portion of the workforce seeking lifestyle and flexible working arrangements, freed from being tethered to the offices of the Big Smoke.
The peak of the Queensland upstate migration frenzy has since passed, however, and some of the recent 'blow-ins' and other punters are returning to the southern states now.
Going forward population growth hotspots will largely be driven by net overseas migration, principally into Sydney and Melbourne, with some COVID refugees also choosing to return from the regions to the cities.
The wrap
In summary, a surprisingly big surge of entrants came into the country in the March quarter, after the hotel quarantine restrictions had been dropped in New South Wales.
If you were to annualise the quarterly rate of growth in March then Australia's population growth would very quickly hit 2 per cent, which would represent a scary record high of around ½ million.
That's probably not going to happen, however...at least, not just yet.
The cooler months through the June and September quarters can tend to be somewhat quieter periods of the year for migration into Australia, though the commencement spring term does bring a burst of international student enrolments and arrivals.
Furthermore, many Aussies have headed to Europe over the past few months to get their long overdue travel fix.
That having been said, the return to free travel does suggest that we're about to see some thumping population growth of around ¼ million over the next six months ahead of us, between now and the end of March 2023.
This has a couple of important implications.
Firstly, the labour force capacity constraints created by the abject lack of arrivals (and huge drop in temporary visa holders) over the past 2½ years will now begin to ease.
And secondly, since new arrivals into Australia are overwhelmingly renters, there will be chronic pressure on rental markets, not least because lending assessment buffers for would-be landlords are still set at a minimum of 300 basis points.
