Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Thursday 23 January 2020

One for the ages (Tesla through $100 billion!)

Tesla triples

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed up at $547.20 yesterday, the stock price tripling in only seven months to execute one of the great short squeezes of all time.


It's not stopping there, either!

The stock is trading up another 7.2 per cent in pre-market at $573.49, which values the company at over US$100 billion for the first time.

{Update: now $106 billion} 😂

That's considerably more than the almighty US$90 billion Volkswagen Group, which trades at a PE of under 7 with an operating profit of 14 billion.

This also values Tesla at considerably more than General Motors and Ford combined...and indeed it's bigger than every other car company on the planet, bar Toyota. 

The enterprise value of Tesla is thus today blazing through US$110 billion.


Who needs profits in this bull market anyway?


The Tesla story is one thing, but I can't get my head around Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) at all.

Netflix is basically an enormous pile of US$24 billion or so in debt and liabilities, yet valued with a market cap at close to US$150 billion (oh, and with negative free cashflow of -$3.3 billion). 


Maybe times have changed since I was an auditor, lol...to me that's a debt-financed Ponzi which should be qualified outright on going concern.

Insanity!

An old preso slide is brought to mind...


The NASDAQ index has ripped from 1,450 to 9,425 over the past decade, taking its CAPE ratio from 17 to the highest level since the dotcom bubble oat 41.

Don't @ me, I've already self-referred to the International Court of Chart Crimes for the lack of log scale, with the 2000 tech wreck now looking like a mere bagatelle in the rear-view mirror...


Hedge fund gross leverage has been increasing for the past few years as fundies chase returns to justify fees.

Leverage has also been deployed into fixed income markets, most likely accentuating repo pressures.


These are crazy times in stocks.

Speculate wisely!