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Tuesday, 5 February 2019

Imports dive as well

Imports crunched too

I've lost count of the number of poor or very poor releases relating to the economy in December - about half a dozen or so - and although it was barely reported today you can now add the trade figures to that list.

Nothing too much wrong with exports, with LNG going almost vertical, and further strength in coal and iron ore. 

Exports did drop a couple of per cent in the month due to a billion-dollar drop in gold exports in original terms, but that drop won't be sustained in 2019. 


And indeed, over the year, export values in Aussie dollar terms have never been higher, a positive development for nominal GDP, company profits, and ultimately incomes. 


On the other hand seasonally adjusted imports nosedived by some $2 billion or SIX per cent in December, resulting in an mammoth $3.7 billion trade surplus, the second greatest ever monthly trade surplus in Australia. 

Even on a trend basis the surplus is heading up, up, and away, but a crash in imports hardly something to be celebrated. 


Big merchandise trade surpluses being are notched in Queensland, thanks to LNG, and huge surpluses are consistently recorded in Western Australia. 

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the taps have been switched off and there is precious little business, housing, or personal credit greasing the wheels of the economy right now. 

Unfortunately the tourism boom, which was one of the few genuine shining lights on the economy, also seems to have lost its way as Chinese enthusiasm wanes a little. 


At least it's Lunar Year this month, but there's not too much else to cheer here.