Female hiring surges anew

Hiring surge continues

The Aussie jobs market keeps on keeping on, with total employment rising by a further 44,000 in January 2025, seasonally adjusted, to a record high of 14,634,300 people.

Over the past 3 months, the increase in employment has also averaged 44,000, as strong as anything we've seen since September last year. 

Another rise in female participation took the national participation rate to a fresh record high of 67.3 per cent, and the employment to population ratio also increased further in January.

As such, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed persons rose by 23,000, taking the unemployment rate up from 3.98 per cent to 4.11 per cent, but a lot of these folks will most likely be hired by the time next month's figures roll around. 

There was a modest increase in the underutilisation rate to 10.1 per cent, and hours worked reverted lower in January, but the underemployment rate held at the remarkably low figure of just 6 per cent. 

You don't have to look too hard to find the source of Australia's jobs market strength, with a hugely powerful increase in employment in healthcare and social assistance roles in evidence since 2020.

Despite such strong hiring numbers, wages growth is already looking very weak, rising just 0.65 per cent in the December quarter. 

James Foster ran through the key employment data here.

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With such solid figures continuing for the labour force survey, there will be no need for further changes in interest rates over the coming months, with the next quarterly inflation data not due for release until April 30. 

The Coalition party is arguably favourite to win the upcoming election - at least according to the bookies - and has pledged to work with the regulator to remove some of the barriers to mortgage lending imposed by the stringent assessment buffer. 

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    1. Download our property buying guide

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And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

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Wages growth disappoints lower again

Wages growth slumps

The ABS reported the latest wage price growth figures, and, as I discussed on Twitter this week, they were indeed soft. 

We can step through a few figures and reasons below.

The headline wage price growth increased was only 0.65 per cent in the December 2024 quarter, now well down from the cycle high of 1.30 per cent back in the September 2023 quarter. 

Private sector wage price growth was soft at 0.72 per cent, and for the public sector the figure was remarkably low at only 0.58 per cent. 

Enterprise Bargaining agreements were making a considerably lower contribution to increasing wage prices in 2024 versus 2023. 

At the state level, there has been very strong hiring in New South Wales and Victoria, but both of these states have seen a step down in wage price growth as immigration has ramped again, with wage prices up by just 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively over the calendar year.

Given that these are the two most populous states, this overwhelmingly accounts for the softer wages figures as 2024 progressed. 

Much of the contribution to wage price growth, when accounting for both the size of the industry and wage increases awarded, came from healthcare and social assistance, where there has been much discussion about steepling Budget expenditure.

Source: ABS

Overall, although the labour market has held up exceptionally well - with jobs vacancies actually increasing by 4 per cent over the past month - there is now very little upwards pressure on wages, perhaps largely due to the large positive net immigration over the past year of around +440,000. 

If there are to be concerns about inflationary pressures in 2025, they aren't coming from wage rises. 

James Foster ran through the key details of the wages figures here.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

RBA cut interest rates by 25bps

Easing cycle begins, tentatively

Not feeling an urgent need here to add to the vast quantity of news flows out there already today!

But, just to note in brief...

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a cash rate target of 4.10 per cent.

As predicted, it was a "hawkish" cut...effectively a warning shot that if things start to heat up again then this may prove to be a very short-lived easing cycle.

As such there was very little movement in the currency, with the Aussie dollar holding at 63½ US cents (well above where we started the year at a shade under 62 US cents). 

The Reserve Bank's forecasts are hopeful of seeing the unemployment rate peak for this cycle at just 4.2 per cent, effectively holding on to almost all of the large employment gains experienced across recent years. 

It should go without saying that this would an awesome outcome if it can be achieved. 

Source: RBA

The trimmed mean inflation rate is expected to hold in the target band at around 2.7 per cent, though the cynic in me says that an election year could well see a renewed tidal wave of government subsidies that aim to put downwards pressure on many of the key inflationary pressure points for households. 

This assumes we don't get an equivalent bout of stimulatory election spending promises in tandem, of course!

Source: RBA

All four of the major banks were evidently not keen to become political footballs in the lead-up to the Federal election, and thus immediately passed on the 25 basis points cut in interest rates to mortgage borrowers in full with no fanfare.

Looking ahead, market pricing is likely to be a bit sketchy at this stage, but OIS markets are looking for a couple of further interest rate cuts by around May 2025 and December 2025 respectively, though there's potentially a lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and then.

Source: Bloomberg

It wouldn't be at all surprising if the follow-up press conference is uber-hawkish in its rhetoric, and gives such dovish market pricing a bit of a kick up the backside.

If history is any guide to market cycles - and given the shortage of supply - the housing market will first lift in Sydney, followed by Melbourne, and then ultimately in certain other capital cities and regional markets around the country. 

SQM Research effectively announced as such this afternoon, predicting nominal housing price increases in all eight capital cities, ranging from a lot for Perth to a little for Hobart.

Source: SQM Research

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense podcast: Where will rate cuts bite for property this year?

Auctions lift

Sydney's auction clearance rate is off to the races, underscoring the view of Eliza Owen at CoreLogic that the most expensive markets will likely benefit from lower interest rates the most.

Source: CoreLogic

If history is any guide, Sydney will lead the next property cycle, then Melbourne, and then other parts of the country thereafter. 

We discussed this and a whole lot more in this week's 2-Sense podcast with Chris Bates.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Overseas arrivals exceed pre-pandemic levels

Arrivals are BACK

December was a relatively subdued month for demographic flows, as is usually the case, according to ABS stats.

Net permanent immigration for the month was modest, taking the annual net permanent and long-term immigration figure for the 2024 calendar year down to +445,000 (slightly lower than the +448,000 seen in 2023). 

January was a different story, with overseas arrivals roaring back to a provisional figure of 2.38 million.

Tourism figures haven't yet fully recovered to where they might've been, but it's only a matter of time now, with short-term arrivals up by 8 per cent over the past year.

Source: ABS

Arrivals for January at higher levels than they were in pre-pandemic years, which probably accounts for the plunge in rental vacancies in January, discussed here yesterday. 

Source: ABS

February is normally the biggest month of the year for the net long-term migrant intake, so there will be further pressure on the rental market in the lead-up to the election. 

This poses a problem for the government, because the Coalition has an easy target in the form of the HAFFF, which - although it is planning to deliver some homes and has opened funding rounds - has yet to deliver any new housing.

The government will be praying for an interest rate cut next week to be able to take a 'good news' story into the election campaign. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Vacancies rates plunge anew (Bris approaches all-time lows)

Record low vacancies return

After the usual December seasonal spike in rental vacancies, all 8 capital cities saw their vacancy rates plunge in January 2025 to even lower levels than they had experienced before Xmas, according to SQM Research data.

Nationally the rental vacancy rates is all the way back down to a record low of just 1 per cent. 

Brisbane recorded its second lowest vacancy rate since records began of just 0.8 per cent (only once before has the vacancy rate been lower in the Queensland capital - during the pandemic-induced melee of 2022).

Source: SQM Research

Smoothing out the figures on a 6-month moving average basis shows that Hobart is tightening up remarkably again with an almost unbelievably low vacancy rate of just 0.3 per cent, while Sydney is tighter again at 1.4 per cent, and Perth and Adelaide remain horrendous markets for prospective renters. 

Capital cities asking rents reaccelerated to kick of 2025, rising by +1.6 per cent over the month, as more employers demand a return to the office.

Unit rents rose sharply in Sydney (+1.9 per cent) and Melbourne (+2.3 per cent), while housing rents were strong in Perth, Brisbane, and Sydney.

On the other side of the ledger, asking rents dipped a little across the regions, albeit not by much. 

There appears to be no end in sight yet for the rental crisis, with high population growth and restrictive lending policies persisting into another calendar year. 

SQM Research's Louis Christopher noted that rental listings in February to date are trending lower again, so there's no respite coming this month.

You can read SQM Research's media release here.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Facebook Live with Eric Wu (RealWay Finance)

Facebook Live Webinar

I joined Eric Wu of RealWay Finance to run through all the latest property news, including a dramatic change to lending rules for first homebuyers with respect to the treatment of HECS debts. 

Tune in here (or watch below):

The power of hindsight: 10 tips for before you buy property

Property podcast

This week on the Australian Property Podcast, Amy and I discussed all the things we wish we'd known before we bought out first property!

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can watch the video version on YouTube here: