Markets whipsaw violently

Relief rally for stocks

Spooked by some electric moves in bond markets, President Trump announced a temporary relief in the most acute of his tariff plans for 90 days, allowing financial markets some desperately desired respite overnight. 

Of course, the tariff problem hasn't gone away entirely, and the world still faces what is effectively the biggest increase in tariffs since the 1930s.

Trump's plans will still see China facing a tariff rate of 125 per cent, while the reciprocal tariffs from China have now come into effect at an eye-watering 84 per cent rate.

Monetary easing

At the close of trade yesterday, markets were pricing five interest rate cuts for Australia over the 12 months.

Although stock markets locked in a massive relief rally overnight, government bond yields in Australia appear to be much more circumspect about our growth prospects.

Presumably this is due to the likelihood that the massively disruptive tariffs between the US and China will remain in place, with Australia being seen as something of a proxy for growth in the Chinese economy over recent decades.

China is already experiencing a bout of deflation, and the trade diversion ensuing from tariffs could result in a deflationary shock for Australia, at a time when oil prices have also plummeted. 

The Aussie dollar has bounced a little to 61½ US cents, but the 3-year government bond yield in Australia is still trading at only 3.34 per cent, almost a full percentage point lower than we've seen at various junctures through 2023 and 2024.

National Australia Bank has leaped forth with a call for an emergency 50 basis points cut in the cash rate target in May, followed by further rate cuts in July, August, November, and February.

If this transpires it would take the cash rate target down to 2.60 per cent.

This sounds very aggressive to me, but things are obviously changing very fast at the moment.

You can read NAB's markets note here.

The wrap

Yesterday's markets emergency may have passed, but the key issues remain unresolved, and Trump seems very unlikely to back down in full. 

If you didn't catch our webinar last night, I have a number of podcasts going live over the next week or so where I've variously discussed what this will all mean for property with Chris Bates, Michael Yardney, Eric Wu, and Cameron Kusher. 

Stay tuned for those episodes...

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

HELP on its way for borrowers

HELP debt treatment

Effective from tomorrow, via the CBA, borrowers with HELP (formerly HECS) debt may be able to increase or maximise their borrowing capacity:

The regulator APRA had previously proposed an updated approach to the treatment of HELP debt to maintain lending standards (while also acknowledging that HELP debt is slightly different in nature from other forms of liabilities). 

Webinar reminder

A final reminder—our live strategy session kicks off tomorrow (Wednesday) night at 7:00 PM AEST.

 

I’ll be breaking down the framework we use to help clients in their 30s and 40s build portfolios that support $250K+ in passive income—without chasing “hotspots” or overextending themselves.

 

Wednesday, 9 April

7:00 PM AEST

Click here to register if you haven't already.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Consumer sentiment spooked

Consumers spooked

Consumer sentiment fell -6 per cent in April, according to the Westpac survey, to the lowest level in 6 months.

This was the biggest monthly drop in nearly 2 years.

Notably the survey sample was taken before 'Liberation Day' so you can be fairly well assured that sentiment will have shifted lower since then. 

Source: Westpac

The time to buy a dwelling index remained +14 per cent higher than a year earlier.

House price expectations lifted +5 per cent in April, largely thanks to the first interest rate cut in the cycle.

And interest rate expectations were more than -20 per cent down from the prior year in April 2024, though consumers were notably far less confident of more rate cuts in April. 

Of course, markets have been rocked over the past few days, and interest rate expectations have moved correspondingly lower again. 

The NAB Survey was taken in March, and showed a further slight easing in retail prices and labour costs.

Source: NAB

CommSec's chart shows how the inflationary pressures have now passed. 

Deutsche Bank and others are now expecting a 50 basis point interest rate cut in May.

Free webinar

It's the last chance to sign up for our Wednesday night free webinar here.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Market pricing shifts significantly

Rate cuts expected

There's no need to add to the breathless stock market commentary this week, except to note that obviously stock market indices have moved very quickly to the downside, with another 4¼ per cent decline for the Aussie index today.

But Australia has got some firepower, which should keep us out of recession.

The Aussie dollar briefly dropped to under 60 US cents, a pretty sharp drop from nearly 64 US cents in mid-March, so that's the first thing. 

With crude oil prices also crashing to under $60/barrel - and China's trade diversion likely to be dumping a surplus of goods onto consumers at deflationary prices - Aussie inflation expectations have already dropped to the lowest level since October 2022.

And so secondly, interest rate expectations have also shifted down significantly, with a jumbo 50 basis points interest rate cut almost fully priced in for next month, and five interest rate cuts in total priced in for this year (which would take the cash rate target down to 2.85 per cent, if it transpires). 

Obviously this would be stimulatory for the property market, except to the extent we still have a 3 percentage points lending assessment buffer in place to protect against...I guess, rising interest rates?

Australia is also fortunate to have relatively low government debt, so there's plenty firepower there too if it's required, which is the third thing in our favour. 

Webinar this week

We always see a pattern: high-income professionals in their 30s decide it’s time to get serious about building wealth.

They’ve got the income, the savings, and the intent.

 

But then, they buy the wrong property—usually under $500K, often in an outer suburb or regional market.

Pitched as “the next big thing” by data-driven buyer's agencies.

Or sometimes it's off-the-plan developments, recommended for the depreciation and tax deductions, and for being easy to rent out in the early years.

But then just like that, the first few years of momentum are gone.

Buying the wrong asset early on in the property journey is one of the most expensive mistakes you can make, due to the potential opportunity cost.

 

That’s why we're hosting a free live strategy session.

 

Wednesday 9th April at 7:00 PM AEST

Sign up here (or click on the image below):

See you there.

2-Sense podcast: Your ultimate election guide for property

2-Sense podcast

This week on the podcast, Batesy and I discussed everything you need to know about the upcoming Australian election as it relates to property.

We also worked through some of your listener questions.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the video version on YouTube here:

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

New apartment prices rose 33% in 2024 (Urbis)

New unit prices surge

Urbis released its latest Apartment Essentials Report for the final quarter of 2024.

I've been thinking for a couple of years now that new unit prices are going to have to go on a big run before we get any kind of decent supply response. 

Construction costs and interest rates have been too high for new projects to work otherwise. 

New apartment prices soared to $19,000 per square metre, jumping towards the end of the year, according to Urbis.

The latest report also highlighted a shortage of skilled construction labour. 

Off the plan prices are up 33 per cent from a year earlier, driven by an even larger jump in new unit prices in Brisbane. 

In this cycle to date, off the plan sales are being driven much more by owner-occupiers, rather than investors from interstate or overseas. 

Although there were fewer stalled projects, the supply pipeline remains below average, reported Urbis. 

You can find the full Urbis report here.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Upcoming webinar

Tariff turmoil

Quite a night on financial markets, with the S&P 500 down nearly -5 per cent, and the NASDAQ down another -6 per cent.

Markets are now pricing in 4 interest rate cuts in the US, and if Trump continues down the current path, then there's clearly a significant chance of a recession.

But the truth is, nobody really knows how things will pan out from here.

There's also more than 110 basis points of monetary easing priced in for Australia, with oil prices plunging -7 per cent overnight (lower fuel prices ahead will be most welcome!). 

Assuming the next quarterly inflation figures behave themselves, interest rates will most likely be on their way down further from next month, at the May meeting.

I'm not sure why we still have a record 3 percentage points lending assessment buffer for mortgages in such an environment, but it's still in place. 

The Aussie ASX 200 stock index has been treated a bit more kindly than some other overseas markets, and is trading down -6 per cent year-to-date. 

Mortgage rates are set to fall into a housing shortage - in my opinion, locking in solid housing price gains over the next couple of years. 

Australia's 3-year bond yield fell another 11 basis points to 3.45 per cent, down from 4.33 per cent as recently as October.

Webinar

Many property investors think they’re making the “safe” choice—buying in cheap areas, chasing yield, or following market noise.

 

But in reality, these decisions can often do the most long-term damage.

 

We’re running a strategy session to cut through the noise and show you what actually drives performance over time—and what quietly erodes it.

 

In this session, we’ll cover:

 

- Why most so-called “safe” properties may be quietly killing investor returns

- What’s changed in the market—and how strategic investors are adapting

- The clear path to building $250K in passive income with fewer, but better assets

- How to filter out underperformers and select assets with real long-term upside

- The cost of waiting—and how time affects your total retirement wealth

 

If you’re planning your next move or want to sharpen your portfolio strategy, this session will give you the clarity and direction you won’t get from mass-market advice.

Click to reserve your place here (or click on the image below):

Liberation Day arrives with a bang

Job vacancies resume downtrend

Job vacancies fell another 4½ per cent over the 3 months to February, to a seasonally adjusted 327,800.

Public sector vacancies actually increased again, but this was more than offset by a -5.4 per cent decline in private sector vacancies. 

The weakest labour market is currently being experienced in Victoria, where job vacancies are down -15 per cent from a year earlier, with the resources states Western Australia and Queensland generally still showing more resilience. 

Even at this stage in the cycle, there are still only around two unemployed persons per job vacancy, which is a pretty remarkable outcome, and largely thanks to a massive increase in hiring in healthcare, social assistance, and in public sector and other non-market roles. 

However, there's also been a huge lift in the size of the Aussie labour force over the past year or two, and indeed of 1½ million over the past five years.

If historical patterns are any guide, we may well be set for an increase in the unemployment rate ahead, as labour supply outstrips demand.

Trump tariffs announced

Australia's trade balance on goods fell by $2 billion to around $3 billion in February, with the value of iron ore, coal, and natural gas exports all trending sharply lower. 

It looks as though Australia's commodities windfall is over, with surging gold prices representing the only bright spot, as spooked investors seek a safe haven asset. 

Tariff trades

The announcement of tariffs from the US has sent global markets into something of a state of turmoil.

With China bearing much of the brunt of the tariffs in the face of some very steep rates (now totalling 54 per cent) being announced, this is widely expected to be detrimental to growth prospects for Australia. 

Ultimately, Trump is a realtor at heart, and one senses that he'd like to see monetary policy do more heavy lifting, and to end the reliance on the enormous trillion-dollar (and multi-trillion-dollar) deficits that we've grown increasingly accustomed to over the past decade-and-a-half.

If you were to think of it in the context of Trump wanting lower bond yields, then arguably the policies are working their magic immediately.

This does increase the risk of a US recession to something of a 50:50 call, which is obviously detrimental for consumers, and therefore potentially for equities markets. 

Aussie bond yields were repriced sharply lower today, with markets pricing in an interest rate cut in May almost as a done deal.

Markets are now looking for another 3 or 4 interest rates in this cycle for Australia, but there's quite a lot of uncertainty about how things play out from here. 

The 3-year bond yield is now trading at 3.57 per cent in Australia, down a further 16 basis points from yesterday.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Building approvals flat, and 25% below target

Way below target

Building approvals fell modestly in February, down by -0.3 per cent seasonally adjusted, to 16,600.

It was still a fairly solid result, almost entirely due to 2,962 units approved for Melbourne (versus only 795 for Sydney this month). 

House approvals have lost momentum and are rolling over now, with Melbourne (2,077) approving at double the rate of new houses for Sydney (1,018).

Overall, there were a total 16,600 approvals in February, leaving the trend flat.

Over the year there have been 179,000 dwelling approvals, which is off the cycle lows. 

Across the financial year to date, there have been 123,820 dwellings approved, which is only 77 per cent of the 'target' of 20,000 per month, and we are slipping further behind. 

With house approvals now rolling over, there's basically zero chance of the government getting close to its 1.2 million well-located new homes in five years target...and we'd arguably by lucky to even see close to 1 million. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

ausbiz TV: RBA decision and more

ausbiz TV

I joined Andrew at ausbiz TV to discuss the Reserve Bank's policy decision - on hold this month as expected - and the implications for the housing market.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

Retail turnover was soft in February, rising by only 0.2 per cent.

Looking ahead, Westpac is forecasting trimmed mean inflation coming in at only 0.5 per cent for the March quarter, well below the Reserve Bank's forecasts, which would lock in an interest rate cut for month.

Commonwealth Bank is only a little higher, expecting 0.6 per cent for trimmed mean inflation, also a softer trajectory than previously thought. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you:

    1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.