Wednesday, 1 July 2026

Unit approvals trend lower

Data centres surge

The ABS released the May building approvals figures, which showed solid enough figures for detached houses - mainly driven by double-digit growth across Greater Perth - with pretty flat figures for elsewhere. 


Attached dwelling approvals remained tepid in Sydney and Melbourne, with south-east Queensland remaining the one area of relative strength in the country (notably: Brisbane, Redcliffe, Gold Coast, Maroochydore). 


Overall, house approvals are trending higher - essentially thanks to Perth - and unit approvals are now trending lower, with higher mortgage rates and surging building costs now acting as headwinds for the medium-density sector. 


Over the year, there were around 201,000 dwellings approved. 


Over the past two years, about 16,000 dwellings have been approved per month, approximately 20 per cent lower than would be required to meet the government's target of 1.2 million new homes over 5 years. 

I doubt the government will mention the Housing Accord target much from here on out, and it was probably not that much of a serious target anyway.


Going forward, dwelling approvals and dwelling starts are likely to fall away, driven by Sydney and Melbourne, in the aftermath of the Federal Budget changes to property tax legislation. 

It's worth noting that the focus of construction work will likely now pivot away from housing and towards data centres in Sydney and Melbourne. 

The value of building approvals for data centres has surged, as we've previously seen reflected in the private new CapEx figures.

Reported the ABS this morning:

"Approved non-residential building rose 41 per cent (to $10.83 billion), following a 22.9 per cent April rise. This was a record high for non-residential building and was driven by a rise in large data centre approvals located in New South Wales and Victoria.
The value of total residential building value dropped 5.7 per cent (to $10.24 billion)."
James Foster ran through the building approvals figures in more detail here.

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Cotality also released its latest monthly home values index this morning. 

Detached house prices over the year to date are down significantly in two cities, namely Sydney (-4.2 per cent) and Melbourne (-4.4 per cent), with small declines for unit prices also recorded. 


It's typically a quiet time of year for the rental market, but in June we saw the first potential signs of an increase in rental price growth, with rents rising by a seasonally adjusted 0.5 per cent over the month, to be 5.9 per cent higher over the year.


Source: Cotality

Rents have increased by around 42 per cent over the past five years, Cotality reported. 

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The WTI crude oil price fell below $68.50 today for the first time in 4 months. 

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