News wrap
NAB's Business Survey for the June quarter confirmed that employment growth has stalled over recent months, as the Aussie economy runs out of puff.
Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro overlayed the survey data on the below chart, underscoring the decelerating trend:
As such, the interest rate hiking cycle appears to be just about done, and we could be looking towards easing by 2027.
Source: ASX
Separately, Roy Morgan's
unemployment report survey showed the 'real' unemployment rate at the highest level post-pandemic we've seen to date, at 11.7 per cent.
Concerningly, employment also fell for a fourth straight month, noted Roy Morgan.
The official ABS Labour Force figures for the month of June 2026 will be released on Thursday next week.
Rental vacancies tight
SQM Research released its latest rental vacancies data, with a small seasonal increase recorded, and the national rental vacancy rate increasing a little from 1.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent.
The acid test for the rental market will come during the busier periods later in the year.
It's notable here that the one capital city which had been experiencing a reasonably balanced rental market - Melbourne - is now tightening as well as interstate migration reverses back towards Victoria.
Five of the eight capital cities have extremely tight rental markets, with rental vacancy rates of under 1 per cent.
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