Wednesday 10 January 2024

Job vacancies remain elevated

Jobs market holding up

Job vacancies fell only modestly over the 3 months to November, to 388,000.

That's some way down from the wild record high of 476,000 job vacancies at the May 2022 highs, but still it's an elevated number compared to where the trend was heading pre-pandemic.


Job vacancies are gradually falling back towards a more normal range in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia now.

South Australia still has particularly high demand for workers compared to historic trends.


Once we take into account the huge explosion in the size of the labour force due to record high immigration, the figures seem to point to a steady ongoing increase in the unemployment rate, but nothing too dramatic...at least at this stage.


The number of unemployed persons per job vacancy has increased from 1.1 to 1.4 over the past 15 months, but is still at very tight levels, the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1970s. 


Overall, this shows that labour market dynamics are steadily normalising, and hopefully we can pull through 2024 without too many people being added to the dole queue. 

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