Mexicans standoff
After several years of extreme tightness, stock on market has picked up dramatically year-on-year in Perth, as well as Brisbane and Adelaide.
On the other hand, new listings have dropped dramatically lower over the past four weeks in Sydney (-26.6 per cent) and especially Melbourne (-29.4 per cent) versus a year earlier.
Source: Cotality
On this evidence, I'd suggest that Melbourne will likely be the first capital city to see its housing market bottom out and move into its recovery phase, followed by Sydney.
Victoria may also experience a bit of a sentiment boost from a change of government after a dozen years.
Asking prices in Melbourne have already bottomed out for units, and indeed at the lower price points have seemingly been inching higher of late.
Source: SQM Research
The higher price points probably won't recover until prospective market participants are certain that interest rates aren't going any higher, with many choosing to sit on the sidelines until then.
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In other news, the ABS released its lending finance figures for the September 2026 quarter.
Investor lending has collapsed since the Federal Budget, down by almost a third in the September quarter alone, while first homebuyer numbers were also -12.3 per cent lower than a year earlier.
The value of loans for the construction of dwellings also fell -14.4 per cent for owner-occupiers, over the quarter, and -11.8 per cent for investors.
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