Thursday, 25 September 2025

Job vacancies point to rising unemployment

Job vacancies in decline

Job vacancies increased in the public sector again in the 3 months to August, but private sector job vacancies fell by -3.4 per cent.

Overall, job vacancies fell by -2.7 per cent to 327,200, to be about one third below the peak of 475,000 some 3 years earlier. 


Queensland continues to be the standout economy, with jobs vacancies in the Sunshine State increasing to 71,400, even though there are some regional jobs being lost in the coal mining industry

New South Wales also saw a small increase to 98,100 vacancies. 

Overall, however, vacancies are easing, with Victoria (or -7,300 or -8.8 per cent) experiencing the greatest drop. 


At this stage, there are still only a couple of unemployed persons per job vacancy. 


That said, the trajectory of job vacancies as a share of the labour force suggests that the unemployment rate will continue to rise from here towards 4½ per cent, and probably beyond. 


As corroborative evidence, some random guy on X Tweeted me the below indexed chart of SEEK job applications per advert. 


Source: Some random guy on 'X'

Overall, though labour market dynamics may have shifted a little since the pandemic, it looks as though the unemployment rate will rise in most states and territories ahead. 

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