Unemployment trending higher
The number of persons employed increased by 24,500 in July, seasonally adjusted, to an estimated 14.64 million, with a strong adjustment to full-time employment.
This comes off the back of two much weaker months, and as such the 3-month average increase in employment has slowed to just 7,500.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was reported as 4.24 per cent, a bit lower than the 4.31 per cent reported for June, but the second highest result since 2021.
The trend for unemployment is therefore clearly rising.
Finally, other measures of slack are hanging in there just fine.
Overall, a solid enough set of numbers, which confirmed a steady uptrend in unemployment.
The odds of a rate cut in September remain at about 30 per cent, with another survey due for release before the next central bank meeting.
Unemployment remains exceptionally low in New South Wales (4 per cent), Queensland (4.2 per cent), and Western Australia (4.2 per cent), but a bit higher in Victoria (4.6 per cent).
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In other news, net immigration appears to have been reaccelerating over the past 5 months, to reach a total of +457,560 over the 2025 financial year, a little below the all-time highs.
The government has increased the planning level for international students in 2026, so population pressures appear to be re-intensifying.
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