Thursday, 19 June 2025

Population growth eases back towards new normal

Population growth normalises

Population growth was slightly softer than expected at an estimated +91,100 over the December 2024 quarter. 

Over the year, Australia's estimated resident population increased by +445,900 or +1.7 per cent, driven largely by net overseas migration (+340,800), far more so than the natural increase of the population (+105,200). 

Reported the ABS:

"‘There were 594,900 people arriving from overseas and 254,200 departures.

This means that 340,800 people were added to our population from overseas migration in 2024.'"

Internally, there are still strong population slows heading into south-east Queensland (+25,940) and Western Australia (+12,612) over the calendar year. 

That said, the pandemic-induced rush towards moving interstate has now dropped back towards rather more sustainable levels. 


Population growth overall appears to be a little slower than previously projected, and Australia's population clock will finished the financial year at around 27.6 million (previously it had looked more like 27.7 million was closer to the mark).


The estimated rate of population growth is now running at one extra person around every 1 minute and 16 seconds, according to the ABS, which equates to around 400,000 per annum, or a bit higher. 

Going forward, the latest arrivals and departures figures suggest that population growth may may settle at somewhere around this mark. 

Over the year, the bulk of population growth was accounted for by Victoria (+132,600), New South Wales (+108,100), and Queensland (+102,800), although the fastest percentage rate of growth was seen in Western Australia (+2.4 per cent).

Tasmania saw the slowest rate of population growth at 0.3 per cent, or +1,600 persons. 


Source: ABS

Looking ahead, tougher assessment criteria and thus slower growth in student visas should take some of the heat out of rampant population growth, even though overall immigration settings are still running at historically elevated levels.

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