Monday, 2 September 2024

Resi building approvals turn the corner

Home approvals up

Detached house approvals are really surging back in Perth now, and it looks as though there is also a solid uptrend in place for Melbourne, as well as in Greater Brisbane…where supply is urgently needed.

Adelaide also now looks to be shaping upwards, but supply is really struggling in Sydney.


There were 2,000 attached dwelling approvals in Melbourne in July, but Sydney and especially Brisbane continue to record very low unit approvals figures. 


With home approvals turning a corner, there were around 14,800 approvals in July for the best seasonally adjusted result in more than a year, and the trend looks much healthier now.


In context, though, approximately 165,400 dwellings over the year was a modest bounce off 11¼-year lows.


Non-residential approvals had been exceptionally strong in 2023, but as infrastructure projects wind up approvals activity in this space is fading fast.

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In other news, the early partials for economic growth in Q2 look to be soft, as detailed by James Foster here.

Business operating profits and the national wages bill are following commodity prices lower, and inventories are set to subtract from growth in the June quarter, meaning that another soft result for GDP growth is likely.

Indeed, more broadly the Aussie economy appears to be slowing significantly.

Job ads fell for a 7th straight month in August to be down -23 per cent over the past year to a 3-year low, according to ANZ-Indeed. CommSec came forth with the relevant chart:


Meanwhile, the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge actually fell -0.1 per cent in August, and the reported annual trimmed mean inflation dropped from 2.5 per cent to 2.2 per cent last month, for a 32-month low.


If the official quarterly ABS inflation figures follow in anything like the same vein then Australia's hawkish monetary policy stance will be suddenly undertaking a remarkable volte-face.

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