Wednesday, 11 September 2024

Net immigration is high, but down from the highs

Oil prices tumble

US inflation is expected to come in +0.2 per cent in August and +2.5 per cent over the year (or +3.2 per cent for the core measure). 

With oil prices tumbling to the lowest level since 2021, the US 2-year bond yield has also dropped sharply to the lowest level in 2 years, while market-based measures of inflation expectations have dropped to the lowest level since 2021. 

Breakeven rates over the next 10 years have fallen practically all the way back to 2 per cent.


Source: Bloomberg

Gareth Aird of CBA put out his usual amazing array of charts (you can track down his updates on LinkedIn, which show that Australia is probably heading in a similar trajectory over the months ahead).


Lower fuel prices will be welcome! 

In other news, Australia saw +120,000 permanent and long-term arrivals into the country in seasonally punchy July, which was only a very slight decrease on the prior year.

Permanent and long-term departures were a bit higher than last year at -53,000, meaning that net permanent and long-term immigration over the year to July slowed a bit further from the February 2024 highs to +463,000.


International student arrivals were 132,970 in July - slightly higher than a year earlier - with the government now looking to put some caps in place for higher education institutions.

Overall, it looks as though net immigration will naturally normalise a little as the labour market softens, but still immigration is running at relatively high levels. 

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