Friday, 12 July 2024

Long-term immigration peaked in early 2024

Rental respite, for now...

Short-term arrivals into Australia were 600,000 in May 2024, an increase of more than +17 per cent from a year earlier.

In May and June, considerably more people left the country than arrived.

This is a normal seasonal trend, but it's likely to be more accentuated than it used to be, now that we have almost 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia.

In the immediate term, this means more rental vacancies, and some of the pressure coming off the extremely tight city rental markets. 

The ABS also reporting also hinted that moves to constrain international student arrivals may just be beginning to have an impact at the margin:

"In May 2024 there were 38,010 international student arrivals to Australia, a decrease of 5,940 students compared with the corresponding month of the previous year.

The number of student arrivals in May 2024 was 10.9% higher than the pre-COVID levels in May 2019."

Permanent migration passes peak

It seems pretty likely that the rental market will tighten up again in spring and summer, though.

Net permanent and long-term migration into Australia is also generally lower in May and June, being the quieter winter months.

Over the year to May 2024, net permanent and long-term migration remained extremely strong at +482,450.

However, this is now some way down from the record high of +498,000 over the year to February.

It looks as though permanent migration trends will gradually normalise as 2024 rolls on.

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Despite some talk of lost market share, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia saw its share price hit a record close at $131.66.

This up by +130 per cent from the 2020 lows and in taking the market cap close to A$¼ billion the CBA is now Australia's most valuable company.

This suggesting that arrears and defaults aren't deemed to be a major risk, while fintech disruption evidently hasn't hit the target for the major players in banking. 

Australia's ASX 200 (XJO) closed at 7,959, helping to push household wealth to record heights. 

Have a great weekend!

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