Softer data for June
More soft data in the US confirmed that inflation is effectively beaten over the pond, save for a few lagging housing costs, and - as with the UK and Europe - the narrative is now turning to how soon interest rates can be cut.
Australia has further to travel on this journey, for a range of reasons, but the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge promisingly showed core inflation falling to 3 per cent over the year to June, brushing towards the top end of the 2 to 3 per cent target range.
The MI gauge is arguably less volatile than the ABS figures, but this does add some weight to the notion that most of the inflationary pressures passed by 6 to 12 months ago, while in real time the economy is cooling.
ANZ-Indeed's latest job ads figures also fell by a further -2 per cent in June to be -26 per cent below their 2022 highs.
Given the explosion in the size of the labour force, this appears to point towards an unemployment rate soaring to above 5 per cent in the near future.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also reported another -3 per cent decline in commodity prices in June in Aussie dollar terms, and the central bank will surely be cautious about the potential for rising unemployment ahead.
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In Episode 11 of our podcast mini-series, Catherine and I discussed how property investing is a "game of finance with houses in the middle", as the old saying goes.
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