Thursday, 16 May 2024

Unemployment rate rises to 4.1pc

Unemployment rate is ticking higher

Employment rose +38,500 in April, all driven by part-time jobs, but this was partly due to seasonality issues and the timing of public and school holidays (and indeed, I predicted the strong gain on Twitter ahead of time). 


Employment is at a record high 14.3 million, having increased by +151,000 in the past 3 months.


Despite this, with the population booming the unemployment rate rose more than expected to 4.1 per cent, and clearly the trend is going to be higher from here. 


Roy Morgan Research also recorded a hump in unemployment in April, and the ABS figures also showed that labour force slack is increasing. 


The number that matters for policy is rising unemployment rate, and markets have priced out any further tightening.

More people employed than ever before is still decent news, though!

James Foster added the further texture is his Macro View blog here

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