Monday, 8 April 2024

New home lending remains at record lows

New home lending stalls

Lending for housing increased a little in February, up by by +1.6 per cent, driven by renewed strength in New South Wales, though this did follow on from larger declines over the preceding two months.


Source: ABS

Lending to owner-occupiers was +9 per cent higher than a year ago, and lending to first homebuyers was up solidly by +21 per cent year-on-year, as first-timers push to escape the chronically tight rental market. 

Investor lending was also +22 per cent higher than a year earlier, following another solid increase over the month. 

That said, many investors are also now selling up, as the cashflow doesn't work for them any longer, and naturally this isn't helping the rental supply at all. 

Unfortunately, lending for construction continues to tank, with lending assessment buffers still tight and construction costs far too high for most new projects to make sense. 

Financing to buy new homes is off the lows but overall, as highlighted by the HIA, lending for the purchase and construction of new homes is still hovering at around record lows, despite the population of Australia rocketing higher. 

The HIA explains that the drop has been driven by marked declines New South Wales and Victoria, as also reflected in plummeting building approvals for new apartment projects in the states:


Source: HIA

The one notable exception is Western Australia, where lending for new homes and construction is booming back to life. 

James Foster ran through all the key details here.

Overall, this was disheartening news for anyone seeking a rental, or indeed anywhere to live right now. 

This is now in part now a policy choice, since the regulatory lending assessment buffer of 300 basis points has long since passed its use-by debt, with mortgage rates expected to fall, and household debt to income ratios also in decline.  

On an unrelated note, thanks to everyone who's pre-ordered our new book so far! 

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