Saturday, 9 March 2024

US labor market finally cracking?

Unemployment rate rises in US

At first look, an increase for US nonfarm payrolls of +275,000 was solid enough, and better than market expectations.

However, revisions to the December and January figures clawed back -167,000, and the monthly change was all driven by part-time employment anyway. 


The jobless rate has now increased appreciably from the lows of 3.4 per cent to 3.9 per cent.


Average hourly wages growth was just +0.1 per cent over the month, and slowed to +4.3 per cent over the year. 

Interest rate rises have for a while struggled to slow the US economy given the vast fiscal stimulus and extremely high rates of immigration, and that most housing market borrowers are on fixed rate mortgages anyway. 

But it looks like the labor market egg may finally be cracking.

The President noted that he bets interest rates will soon come down (well, there's an election coming up, so he probably would!). 

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