Monday, 25 March 2024

Immigration train not slowing yet

Student numbers hit records

The government has ostensibly put some measures in place to slow down the rate of immigration, in part through tightening the rules around student visa applications, including higher refusal rates and a reduced scope for stay extensions. 

Policy reforms take time to turn these things around, however, and in February 2024 net student arrivals figures look to be close to +150,000 (well up from around +119,000 last year). 

February is a key month for student arrivals due to University term times and course commencements. 

Student arrivals are the largest contributor to the change in net migration, and this latest month of figures takes total international students in Australia up to around 700,000. 


The rapid rate of immigration is one important factor in the dwelling shortage, alongside higher interest rates, very tight lending regulations, and the extremely steep increase in construction costs since 2020. 

There's also currently a shortage of skilled tradies, partly due to competition for labour from infrastructure projects, such as the Western Sydney Airport and Melbourne's suburban rail loop, and a wide range of mining projects.

BuildSkills Australia estimates that Australia needs an additional 90,000 tradespeople over the next three months, which is obviously an impossible goal. 


Ironically, this is likely to result in the call for a higher intake of skilled construction and trades workers, in turn exacerbating the housing shortage. 

All a bit circular, but there's no chance of the government hitting its 1.2 million homes over 5 years target.

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