Monday, 29 January 2024

Renovations back at near-record levels

Alterations & additions

Major renovations work ballooned from early 2020 from $200 million to $600 million per month on the back of the government's massive HomeBuilder stimulus package.

I guess, if nothing else, this shows just how powerful targeted fiscal stimulus can be!

And Australia has a lot of fiscal headroom should it ever be needed again.

Things seemed to be easing in 2023 as mortgage rates increased, and as many of the pandemic period renovation projects finished, yet by November we were back to near-record monthly highs for the financing of renovations.


What gives?

Firstly, it's worth noting at least a third of the increase in the value of renovations has been due to rising costs, rather than only volumes.

And secondly, certainly the chronic shortage of housing in south-east Queensland has led to the construction of more granny flats. 

Thirdly, low levels of housing stock for sale combined with high transaction costs/stamp duty rates have led many aspirational homeowners to stay put and renovate, rather than trade up.

And fourth, perhaps some of the more creative mortgage brokers are even using 'renovations' as an excuse to cash out for refinancing. 

Noise, or new uptrend?

But is this latest data merely noise or a blip, or is it the resumption of another genuine boom in renovations work?

Smoothing out the recent data suggests that Sydney and New South Wales homeowners have driven the recent rebound, with renovation financing running at around double their pre-pandemic levels. 

But the largest percentage uplifts in the value of renovations lending since the pre-pandemic days have been seen in Queensland and Western Australia, more than tripling respectively.

It's boom-time in the resources states, driven in part by very rapid population growth.

A word of warning for would-be renovators: you should probably plan for budget overruns, heavy pricing for materials and trades, and potentially council approval delays to boot. 

Also, consider using a buyer's agent if you're looking to buy in the current exceptionally tight market conditions.

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