Thursday, 14 December 2023

Unemployment rate rises to 18-month high of 3.9pc

Unemployment rate jumps

Employment was far stronger than expected in November, rising by +61,500 to an all-time high of 14¼ million, and almost all accounted for by full-time jobs in the month.


There had been some expectation that employment growth might slow after hiring for 'The Voice' referendum was unwound, but in fact there's been no discernible slowdown in hiring at all as yet. 


This while yields are tanking all over the place - and markets have rushed to price in six interest rate cuts for the US next year - Australia will be in no rush to follow suit. 

That having been said, with the population surging and the participation rate rising to a record high 67.2 per cent, Australia's unemployment rate increased from 3.7 per cent to 3.9 per cent, which is the highest level in 18 month. 


The under-utilisation rate also climbed from 10.1 per cent to 10.4 per cent, which was also a 21-month high. 


Confirming that the labour market is not as tight as it has been, hours worked barely increased in the month, and are lower than their highs of April 2023. 


Source: ABS

Overall, a pretty tidy result, although bond yields have dropped in sympathy with global sentiment.

Australia's 3-year bond yield is at the lowest level in 6 months, with markets pricing for a potential 3 interest rate cuts over the next 18 months or so.


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