Tuesday, 5 December 2023

RBA on hold, slightly dovishly

Weaker data rolls in

There was another rather large data dump today - for want of a better phrase! - most of which we don't need to go into in too much depth here!

In brief, Australia's current account balance slipped quietly back into a very slight deficit in the third quarter, on stronger services imports and lower commodity prices. 

Although inventories will add to economic growth in the September quarter, net exports will deduct around -0.6 percentage points. 


James Foster ran through the detailed figures here

Household consumption will likely prove to be soft also, at least it appears that way based upon the retail trade volume figures already reported. 

In nominal terms, household spending was only +2.7 per cent higher over the year to October based upon today's latest figures, which is lower after accounting for inflation (and quite a bit lower in per capita terms). 


Source: ABS

Overall, GDP growth in Australia's national accounts looks set to be positive, but underwhelming...a per capita recession, if you will. 

In other news, the value of Australia's dwelling stock increased to $10.3 trillion in the September quarter, with the mean dwelling price ascending by $19,200 over the period, driven by solid gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. 


Source: ABS

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold as expected, in a slightly dovish statement this afternoon, as the brutal interest rate hiking cycle approaches its peak.


Market pricing expects the next move in rates to be down for Australia, but probably not for some time to come. 

Other news saw some very weak results reported for Judo Bank's activity gauge, with services activity recording the weakest reading in the history of the survey, exclusive of the pandemic lockdown periods.

Jobs and Skills Australia also reported lower job advertisements and expectations for slower hiring activity in the recruitment outlook.

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Oil prices are threatening to take out a 5-month low on weaker global demand, which should translate to lower petrol prices over the coming weeks. 

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