Saturday, 16 December 2023

Property to power on in 2024

Property forecasts

Proptrack's property forecasts for 2024, predict prices gains of 2-5 per cent for Sydney, 3 to 6 per cent for Brisbane, and 5-8 per cent for Perth.

There are declines expected in Darwin, Hobart, and possibly in Canberra. 


Source: Proptrack

Forecasts have generally been too bearish, in my opinion.

Firstly because lending is so tight that nothing much is going to get built at today's prices, turning the rental market into a modern version of the Hunger Games.


And secondly because global markets are sensing a peak in the interest rate cycle, with interest rates expected to fall over the next couple of years. 

There's no good reason now why lending is being restricted with a 3 percentage points assessment buffer - if anything a massive shortage of housing adds to financial stability risks later. 

This is a Goldilocks scenario for asset prices, including stock markets around the world, which will very likely pump to fresh highs in 2024.

CBA expects the unemployment rate to revert to 4 per cent by mid-2024 - following indicators such as Roy Morgan's survey and SEEK job advertisements - but Australia is expected to avoid a damaging recession. 

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