Monday, 4 December 2023

Lending for housing picks up solidly

Housing firms

Fairly well a Goldilocks set of numbers for property market participants today.

New housing finance comfortably surpassed expectations, rising +5.4 per cent in October. 

Thanks to Alex Joiner from IFM, who I swear must be using AI to pull together this information so quickly:


Lending for the purchase and construction of new housing was well down on a year ago, but may just be turning a corner (good luck finding a builder right now, mind you). 


James Foster plotted the speed of the rebound here - although the refinancing boom has ended, activity is generally trending higher quite quickly.

The Housing Industry Association warned again on this point, and the ensuing housing shortage:


Source: HIA

More good news was also reported on the inflation from, with the trimmed mean inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute dropping to 3.8 per cent over the year, portending further declines in the 'official' ABS figures ahead. 


Source: IFM Investors

Looking ahead, consumers should also get some further declines in unleaded petrol prices over the coming weeks. 


Finally, job ads fell by a steeper -4.6 per cent in November, following a revised -3.4 per cent fall in October. 

The index has fallen by a sharp -8.4 per cent over the past 3 months, will further declines looking very likely. 


ANZ also apparently thinks the Reserve Bank of Australia has done enough:


Source: ANZ

Higher interest rates are working to bring down inflation and are cooling the hot jobs market noticeably now. 

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