Tuesday, 28 November 2023

Retail turnover declines in October

Retail disappoints

Retail turnover missed expectations, declining modestly by -0.2 per cent in October, to be just +1.2 per cent higher than a year earlier. 

Total monthly turnover remained a little below the 2022 peak, at $35.77 billion, despite some marked increases in prices and population growth over the course of 2023. 

'Black Friday' sales should see a spike in activity in November, which hasn't always been easy to account for with seasonal adjustments (as you can see from the 2022 spike and then subsequent trough). 


There have actually been a few such factors creating noise, such as the i-Phone 15 release and a surprisingly warm spell, so following the trendline is probably smart here. 

The king of Aussie market analysts James Foster ran through all the key details here.

Looking ahead, consumer durables prices are set to go into outright decline in Australia, following the sharp drop in Chinese export prices for consumer durables. 

Justin Fabo chimed in with this awesome graph to demonstrate the relationship:


Monthly consumer price inflation figures will be very closely watched when they are released tomorrow morning.

The annual figure should follow fuel and electricity prices lower, although it's less clear what will be recorded for goods prices. 


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