Tuesday, 7 November 2023

RBA hikes rates to 12-year high

12-year high

The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked the cash rate target from 4.10 per cent to 4.35 per cent today, taking the rate to a 12-year high. 

Interestingly, markets saw the modest shifts in language as reflective of a good deal of uncertainty about household cashflow stress and the need for any further policy tightening. 


Perhaps most notably, there was a change in wording from 'some' to 'whether' further tightening is required.


That having been said, hikes often come in pairs or back to back - a bit like London buses - so we'll have to see what the next month of data brings.

Australia's 3-year bond yield is trading at around 4.18 per cent, which is a bit below where it was in early July, and more than 25 basis points lower than recent highs.

The Aussie dollar also fell back a little from 64.9 US cents this morning to 64.4 US cents after the release. 

Although Westpac's results release yesterday showed a relatively low rate of 30+ day mortgage arrears, as expected there has been a gradual increase in stressed exposures, and some lenders may offer discounts to households in severe mortgage stress. 

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