Monday, 5 September 2022

House and apartment building very weak

Construction tanks

Economists have been talking a bit about the housing construction 'pipeline' still being strong.

While this looks to be a fair point at face value, in real time, housing construction activity is drying up.

A reading of below 50 denotes contraction (AiG's index for August is below):



There was some rain in New South Wales previously, which accounted for some of the slowdown in building work.

But this is much more significant, with new projects being scrapped or delayed, and with many building firms folding. 

The GDP figures this week for June will be strong, partly reflecting a rebound in activity from a disrupted Q1.

But it's clear that by August construction and manufacturing were deeply into contraction territory (and services activity flat).