Saturday, 3 September 2022

Albo increases immigration cap to 195,000

Migration cap lifted

It was confirmed this week that the government will increase the permanent immigration cap from 160,000 to 195,000 to begin tackling the skills  shortage. 

$36 million will also be made available to Home Affairs to fast-track the processing of an extraordinary figure of 900,000 outstanding visa applications. 

This comes at a time when temporary visas appear likely to rebound from extremely depressed levels, as discussed previously here.


Most new arrivals head to Sydney and Melbourne, and buyer's agent Cate Bakos notes how there has been a resurgence of the housing market in the inner city of Melbourne. 


Last year the big city CBDs were recording some extremely high vacancy rates, but that seems to have reversed now, and in fact overall Melbourne's rental market is tightening sharply. 


Source: SQM Research

The same dynamic applies for Sydney now too.


Source: SQM Research

It looks like total population growth could head to record highs of more than 450,000 per annum from here.

Yet many landlords are leaving the market following a string of tenancy and tax reforms, while the huge lending assessment buffer of 300 basis points is now stymying the supply of credit to new borrowers. 

For context, Australia has around 36,000 rental vacancies nationwide, so it's not at all clear where the new arrivals - overwhelmingly renters - are going to live. 

I mentioned this in passing on last drinks on the The Last Call last night, from around 31 minutes here (or click on the image below): 


Have a super weekend!