Investor loans reduced
Although housing lending flows have recovered since the May election, the stock of investment loans fell again in November to $643½ billion, according to APRA's latest statistics for ADIs.
The stock of investment loans declined to 37 per cent of the total for housing lending of $1.74 trillion.
This accords with the Reserve Bank's housing credit growth figures, which showed investor credit growth hitting a 43-year low, including negative growth for investment loans lately.
There was a solid increase for owner-occupier loans of 0.51 per cent in the month of November 2019.
Data revisions have rendered analysis of investment loans by lender somewhat meaningless, though it's clear that NAB's often high mortgage rates for investors have pushed away some business,.
Westpac, meanwhile, is also unwinding its position as the king of interest-only lending quite significantly, which is in turn reducing its total stock of loans.
Westpac ($182 billion) and Commonwealth Bank ($156 billion) still retain the largest mortgage books overall.
NAB ($261 billion) is growing its lending to homebuyers, and will continue to do so in 2020 as the first homebuyer deposit scheme kicks into force.
Chastened ANZ ($247 billion), on the other hand, has been reducing its mortgage exposure of late, and now has a less substantial mortgage book than NAB.
As ever there's then the customary huge drop down to the next tier of lenders, of which Macquarie Bank (ASX: MQG) has been growing fairly aggressively, notably picking up some of the slack in investor lending.
Stall speed
As the new year gets underway economists will be looking for a sign - any sign - that the Reserve Bank's 'gentle turning point' is founded upon evidence instead of hope.
It’s mostly been a case of stories over statistics so far, though.
It’s mostly been a case of stories over statistics so far, though.
Complicating the hopes for any such adjustment the Aussie dollar has swept higher from 67 cents to 70 cents against the US dollar, which the RBA's own econometric modelling suggests a further trimming of GDP growth.
Commonwealth Bank released its manufacturing PMI figures for December, which missed forecasts in hitting a series low at a contractionary 49.2.
Still stuck in stall speed by any objective measure, with gathering risks to the downside...
Still stuck in stall speed by any objective measure, with gathering risks to the downside...
