Saturday, 2 November 2024

Fed to cut in November & December

Payrolls weaken

US nonfarm payrolls were much weaker, and essentially unchanged in October (+12,000).

The blues and academics were quick to point out that hurricanes might've clipped 40,000 or so from employment - which could prove to be true - however, that doesn't account for downwards revisions to the preceding months totalling -112,000. 

Overall, it looks like the pace of employment gains may be tapering off now.


The reported unemployment rate did increase, but only marginally from 4.051 per cent to 4.145 per cent, and as such held relatively steady at just 4.1 per cent rounded.

The so-called 'Sahm Rule' is no longer triggered on these numbers, but next month will likely be more instructive. 

Average hourly earnings were +4 per cent higher over the year, broadly as expected.

Bond yields initially dived 10 basis points or so, but then fairly quickly rebounded through the day's trade.

Overall, this was an apparently soft result, which should keep the Fed cutting interest rates in November and December.