Monday, 7 October 2024

Munger's mental models #11: The bell curve fallacy

Munger's mental models

It's the penultimate video in the series today...tune in here (or click on the image below):


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Melbourne Institute reported an increase of only +0.1 per cent for its inflation gauge in September, after a drop of -0.1 per cent in August.

Over the year, headline inflation remained close to 3-year lows, at 2.6 per cent, well below what the ABS has recently reported.

The pulse for core inflation figure has been very modest over the past 3 months as well.

Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro Tweeted the below chart showing how on a 3m/3m basis, core inflationary pressures have evaporated (at least, on this gauge). 


Looks OK.