Job ads easing
Job ads decreased by -0.4 per cent in August (or ads), to be -6 per cent lower than a year earlier.
Although job ads remain at a historically strong level for the time being, a range of forward-looking indicators are now pointing towards the unemployment rising towards 4½ per cent over the months ahead.
Source: Jobs and Skills Australia
The easing in conditions has largely been a capital city phenomenon, driven mainly by Melbourne and Sydney.
All of this is further consistent with the interest rate cycle having peaked, with rate cuts likely to follow in 2024, as articulated by Bill Evans of Westpac:
Source: Westpac
Westpac's latest consumer sentiment figures showed a renewed decline in sentiment, but interest rate expectations easing and house price expectations continuing to rise.
Source: Westpac
Tight lending settings and the related housing shortage are likely to be a key factor here.
Developers have poured scorn on the idea that Australia will be able to supply the promised 1.2 million dwellings over 5 years, suggesting that a net addition of 120,000 new homes each year might be a more realistic level, if we're lucky.
This week's arrivals and departures figures confirmed ongoing strength in net long-term and permanent arrivals at a much higher level than previously expected.
Shane Oliver from AMP charted the surge:
Big numbers.
