Wages data still weak
One of the interesting pieces of information to watch in a fortnight's time will be the wage price index figures.
The anecdotal evidence seems to be quite varied, with some in-demand roles seeing tasty pay rises, but many employed positions going backwards in real terms.
Most likely the June figures will show wage price rising by less than 3 per cent over the 2022 financial year.
The March 2022 figures again missed to the low side, and resulted in an annual increase of only 2.35 per cent, with public sector wage price increased stuck at only 2.2 per cent.
The annual figure will have to be higher for the June quarter, but the question is by how much?
The early signs aren't great.
CBA's wage rate indicator estimates that even by the end of July annual wages growth was stuck at around 2½ per cent.
Source: CBA
NAB also estimates for the June quarter an increase of 2½ per cent.
If this comes to pass, such a pathetically weak result would be a strong argument for a pause in rate hikes after next month, especially given the significant declines in commodity prices since May.
A real wage price increase - after inflation - of around minus 3½ per cent seems more akin to a black hole than a wage price spiral.
It's possible, of course, that after a lag stronger wage increases will come later.
