Friday, 6 September 2024

Interest rate cuts to begin as US jobs miss

Jobs miss

The US nonfarm payrolls report showed employment growing by a lower-than-expected +142,000.

Source: BLS

The unemployment rate held fairly steady as expected at 4.2 per cent.

However, there were downwards revisions to the preceding two months by a combined -86,000, taking the 3-month average for employment gains down to just +126,000 (and below 100,000 for the private sector).

A disappointing set of numbers for hiring, which saw the 2-year bond yield drop by around 7 basis points to 3.67 per cent.

Markets are pricing a 50 basis points cut this month by the Federal Reserve as 55 per cent likely (versus 45 per cent for a 25 basis points cut).