Tuesday, 10 September 2024

Average household sizes are increasing again

Dwelling stock increases

The ABS released the latest figures on dwelling values up to the June 2024 quarter.

The average or mean dwelling price increased by +$15,600 to $973,300 over the 3-month period, with significant increases recorded in Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland, and New South Wales, but with a few declines notable elsewhere.


Source: ABS

The number of dwellings was estimated to be around +52,900 higher at 11,211,000, taking the total estimated value of the dwelling stock up to $10.9 trillion.


Source: ABS

That seems to be a pretty momentous yet almost meaningless number when considered on its own, but we can compare it to Australia's annual nominal GDP, and the ratio is about 4.09x (the highest ratio we've seen in Australia was about 4.5x during the pandemic period). 


Following decades of falling average household sizes - and then a surprise plunge to under 2.4 persons per dwelling during the pandemic 'race for space' - it appears that Aussies are gradually bunching up together again.

Indeed, the estimated number of persons per dwelling at 2.44 seems to have now returned to its pre-pandemic levels. 


This trend will probably continue for a while to come in response to higher rents, and more employees being called back into the office. 

The impact of this will likely be to take the pressure off rental price inflation as the renting cohort adjusts to the new normal conditions.

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With oil prices falling to the lowest level since 2021 - a disinflationary move - and Australia's key commodity prices also tumbling - bond yields are breaking lower.

Australia's benchmark 3-year bond yield is now trading below 3½ per cent:


Macquarie announced a cut to its fixed rates for 2-year and 3-years to 5.59 per cent.