Homebuyer credit growth rises to 15-month high

Housing credit growth picking up gradually

Housing credit growth came in at 0.4 per cent in January, which is pretty solid. 

Investor credit growth - on a net basis - has continued to slow from 0.29 per cent in October to a very anemic 0.22 per cent in January.

We're seeing many instances of rental leases being renewed at 30 to 50 per cent higher levels, so investors should eventually be lured back into the market in 2024...but many are still selling for now, due to higher mortgage rates.

Owner-occupier credit growth was notably stronger at 0.44 per cent, for a 15-month high.

Overall, then, the housing credit impulse continues to strengthen, pointing to some price growth in 2024. 

Credit growth was 4.9 per cent over the year for the Aussie economy, well down from 7.5 per cent a year earlier. 

Other news

Retail turnover came in softer than expected for January, failing to recover the plunge from the preceding month.

Consumer spending is stalling and will continue to fade throughout 2024, and Australia's 3-year bond yield reflects these softening expectations, declining to a shade under 3.7 per cent. 

A slightly brighter spot was to be found in the latest CapEx figures, with a huge +17.5 per cent surge in renewables infrastructure spending over the past year.

We aren't building nearly enough dwellings, but there's a vast amount of investment in infrastructure taking place. 

---

In other news, wages growth looks to be cooling.

Via SEEK:

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Housing construction slows; Victoria to fall far short of supply target

Home building slows

With another building firm going into administration yesterday, affecting a further 120 projects, it wasn't a great surprise to see that home building activity was falling sharply in late 2023 as the pipeline shrinks. 

Apartment construction held up better.

I've been of the opinion that anti-landlord legislation and new land taxes will stymy the supply of rentals in Victoria.

Usually I get the smartarse quips about the properties not spontaneously combusting when a landlord sells up.

This is true, but overlooks the important role of household formation, and also that most new units are bought and funded by investors.

Take the investors out of the market and new apartment supply will dry up.

Victoria has a notional target of building 800,000 new homes over the next decade to meet record rental shortages and high population growth.

Good luck, but, well, I can't see it...

Attached dwelling construction in Brisbane is beginning to stir again in response to a chronic shortage.

Overall construction activity was strong, driven by another record quarter for engineering and infrastructure activity in New South Wales, and an ongoing ramp-up in mining construction in Western Australia. 

Overall, December 2023 was a very strong quarter for engineering works, but residential building work done fell by more than 5 per cent as house building slowed, while Victoria's housing supply targets increasingly look like a pipe dream due to taxes and other disincentives.  

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Inflation lower than expected at 3.4pc

Inflation easing

After a hundred and more articles on "Taylor Swift inflation" the actual inflation figure came in at only 3.4 per cent for the year to January 2024. 

That was lower than the 3.6 per cent expected by market economists.

Maybe we'll see some Swifty impact in February, but not yet!

Source: ABS

Over the past month, the measured year-on-year prices declined.

Generally, then, the disinflationary trend remains well intact, and this was a happy result for policymakers, with the return to inflation target tracking a little bit better than previously expected. 

There's still an ongoing issue with rents and new housing costs.

Housing construction and major renovations fell sharply in the final quarter of 2023 as the pipeline shrinks (and with yet more building firms going bust), so the materials and trades price pressures should start to ease here too.

Overall, for both 3-month and 6-month annualised figures inflation is within the 2 to 3 per cent target band on these figures.

Good news, and plenty softer than most of the economist forecasts, some of which ran as high as 4 per cent. 

James Foster ran through the details here.

---

Keep an eye out for the upcoming podcast episode where I spend an hour with Dr. Cameron Murray, author of The Great Housing Hijack. 

It was a very interesting conversation, where Cam explained how households tend to spend a consistent amount of their income on rent over time, in most developed economies.

For this reason, as incomes rise over time, so do rents.

This kind of makes sense to me, based on personal experience - whenever we’ve rented the starting point has been our allocated budget. 

And while housing prices can rise and fall through the cycles, they seldom fall too far before yields become relatively all too attractive and investors bid prices all the way back up again. 

Cam also explained the role of vested interests in property, why rezoning alone can't fix housing supply, and how bridesmaid suburbs are great investments as they benefit from the ripple effect. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Our no-nonsense Big Picture Podcast about the economy & property markets

Big Picture podcast

I joined Michael Yardney on the Big Picture podcast to discuss all the latest news for the economy and property here (or click on the image below):

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Mortgage stress continues to build

Mortgages under stress 

Mortgage stress is still continuing to build under current settings.

The impact of higher mortgage rates has yet to fully flow through as low fixed rate mortgages continue to reset to much higher mortgage rates. 

And now there are more than 600,000 unemployed persons, with some firms cutting wages, and many building and construction firms also teetering on the brink.

Roy Morgan estimated there to be 1.6 million stressed home loans as at January 2024.

That's with close to 1 million mortgages now classified as extremely at risk.

Source: Roy Morgan Research

The percentages of mortgages under stress has run higher once before on this data series in May 2008, but this was rescued by interest rate cuts. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Office values plunge 20pc in Aus

Office vacancies

We've been thinking about buying a small office space in Brisbane, with valuations having come off. 

The latest figures from the Property Council showed that office vacancy rates continued to climb in early 2024. 

Overall office vacancy rates are now sitting at 14.5 per cent.

Source: Property Council of Australia

Office vacancy rates are thus at their highest level in nearly 30 years, since the fallout from early 1990s recession. 

As such office rents are likely to decline further, and asset resale values will be further impacted. 

High-grade office space if faring relatively better, with business taking the opportunity to move into better premises at discounted rates. 

It's difficult to know at this stage whether there will be a bigger fallout in terms of loans going bad, but these figures point to further declines in office rents and valuations in 2024.

With interest rates at today's levels and business struggling to get staff to attend the office, this has some potential to get messy.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Suburb records are made to be broken

2-Sense

Batesy and I talked suburb records being broken, the latest wages trends, and investors returning to Sydney.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the video version here (or below):

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Buying happiness, with Kate Campbell

Webinar

I really enjoyed the book Buying Happiness: Learning to Invest Our Time and Money Better, by Kate Campbell. 

We discussed some of the key takeaways on this webinar here (or watch below):

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Stuart Wemyss: Tax, borrowing, property, & more

Property strategy

Stuart Wemyss from ProSolution Private Clients joined me on a recent webinar to talk tax cuts, borrowing, and property strategies.

It was a great discussion so thought I would share it here. 

Tune in here (or watch below):

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Mortgage stress on the rise

ausbiz TV

I joined Danielle Ecuyer at ausbiz TV to discuss rising mortgage stress, a spate of suburb record housing prices in Brisbane, immigration levels, property investor activity, and more.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here. 

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.