Tuesday, 12 September 2023

Rental market driving homelessness

International arrivals rebound

The ABS reported that the value of Australia's dwelling stock increased by $325 billion in the June quarter to be back above $10 trillion, recovering the decline during the pandemic. 


Source: ABS

The increase was mainly driven by increases in the mean dwelling prices in NSW (+$32,000) and Queensland (+$26,000). 

Source: ABS

In a separate release the ABS reported that the number of international arrivals increased to an estimated 1.74 million in July, the highest figure since January 2020. 


Source: ABS

Despite this, short-term arrivals remain way below previous highs, with Chinese visitors tracking at just a fraction of their pre-pandemic levels. 


Source: ABS

Thus there is plenty of scope for further increases in the total number of international arrivals. 

In other news, SQM Research reported declines in rental vacancy rates in August, to 1.2 per cent.

There were monthly declines in rental vacancy rates in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, and Canberra.  


Source: SQM Research

There was a modest monthly increase in asking rents, with asking rents over the year up 17 per cent for units, and 15 per cent for houses. 

Louis Christopher mirrored what was reported by the Council for Homeless Persons over the past week, that the chronic shortage of affordable rentals is likely to drive a very large increase in homelessness.


Source: SQM Research

This is set to continue as paternalistic lending settings make it very hard for landlords to add rentals to the market on a net basis at a time when many are selling, while prospective first homebuyers are also becoming stuck in the rental pool. 

The CHP also reported that the state of Victoria would need 60,000 affordable and community housing dwellings to be built over the course of the next decade. 

SQM's media release is here.