Friday, 30 June 2023

Jobs vacancies on the way back down

Job vacancies easing from high levels

Jobs vacancies dropped in each of the three most populous states over the three months to May 2023.

The series break relates to a period of funding cuts when the data weren't collected. 


Although still historically high, jobs vacancies had declined from a high of around 480,000 a year earlier to about 430,000 by May 2023. 

  
By May there were just over ½ million unemployed, meaning that the average number of unemployed persons per jobs vacancy remained historically low at just 1.2, although the figure will likely be mean reverting over the next couple of years. 


That's not a boom

Retail turnover increased +0.7 per cent in May, leading to talk of a potential resurgence in spending. 

A glance at the chart shows that retail turnover remained lower than it was in October 2022, despite the very large increase in the resident population (and retail prices) since that time, although spending on eating out looked surprisingly solid.

It must be the oldies spending their pandemic savings. 


Card trackers reported by the major banks suggest that retail spending dropped very sharply in June.

The population figures are a different matter entirely.

One month ago on 28 May Australia's population clock passed 26½ million.


However, with estimates being revised it turns out there are now an estimated 26.6 million residents, 100,000 higher than we thought only a month ago. 


That's a boom.