Wednesday, 12 April 2023

Dwelling starts sink towards decade low

Dwelling starts towards decade lows

The number of dwelling starts fell to around 41,000 in the December quarter, close to decade lows.

In particular attached dwelling starts are now very low, declining to around 12,000, a drop of -34 per cent from a year earlier. 


There has been a very long tail on this construction cycle but the number of units under construction is now declining. 

Still plenty of detached homes under construction around the country. 



The unit supply pipeline is now shrinking across each of the major cities. 


Overall, there were only 43,000 completions and just 41,000 commencements in the last quarter of 2022, which is way under the required level.

It's worth noting that with developers going bust left, right, and centre, many of the approved dwellings will never be built. 


Very slow dwelling starts numbers, which only lead me to believe that interest rates will be falling again by next year.