Supply crunch
Rounding out the week with a random array of news today!
New supply in the housing market for the second half of the year and beyond continues to look very shaky indeed!
The average new mortgage size has been rising for 5 months worth of data now - since September 2022 - but lending for new homes and construction is getting chronically smoked.
CommSec's chart below showed that lending for new home commitments is now at the lowest level in 14 years, at only 4,355 units in total.
With the long lags in the cycle, this surely means that housing supply will become very tight over the next couple of years.
Arrears rising
Separately, S&P Global reported that mortgage arrears began to rise in Q4 last year, especially in outer Melbourne, Sunbury, Hume, and Latrobe, as well as in Moreton Bay South in Queensland.
Arrears are at low levels, but are now rising significantly, especially for non-conforming loans.
Owner-occupier 30+ day arrears arrears at 1.19 per cent for the December quarter were still historically low, but are rising (and are higher than investor arrears at 0.90 per cent).
Both SEEK and Indeed reported declines in job ads, meaning that the unemployment rate will likely now rise further towards 4½ per cent as we move through 2023.
Source: CBA Economics
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Offshore student visa applications continued to rip higher to 42,000 in January, about +40 per cent higher than the previous record for the time of year.
