Wednesday, 15 March 2023

Long-term arrivals scaling new highs

Arrivals at record

Net arrivals bounced back strongly in January after the usual December lull.


And it looks like the net arrivals figure for February will be very large as the international students return en masse.


Student visa applications are tracking at record highs now.

Stripping out the temporary visa holders, long-term arrivals are running at record levels (Westpac chart).



Labour force rebound

There's a very big news release out tomorrow, being the employment figures for February.



This one will be watched very closely, with a big rebound in jobs to be expected to be added after two declines, though the 3-month average will probably give a more accurate reading of the state of play.

SEEK's job ads index is now posting year-on-year declines, suggesting that the peak tightness in the labour market has now passed. 

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I spoke at the PIPA Seminar this morning with Tim Lawless of CoreLogic, and the Chief Executive of the REIQ, Antonia Mercorella. 


The subject was Queensland's rental crisis, with tenants in SEQ now paying $1,800 per week for substandard properties...if they are lucky enough to even find a property to rent. 

Many are currently room-sharing or camping out. 

In the medium-term by around 2026, a surge from the build to rent sector will come into the equation.

In the immediate term, with Australia's 1-year bond yield trading below 3.2 per cent - and the 3-year yield trading all the way down to 2.75 per cent overnight - surely it's time to release the extraordinary constraints on housing investor lending.