Monday, 27 March 2023

Disinflation is ahead

Inflation set to fade

Inflation expectations are falling, with implied forecasts dropping to around 2-year lows in the US. 


Australia's 3-year bond yield is trading at 2.79 per cent this morning, which is of course a long way below the current cash rate target of 3.60 per cent. 

I reckon it will be important to stay focused on the big picture over the next 3 to 6 months.

There will probably be a lot of jumping at shadows and shouty headlines about stagflation or a return to the 1970s.

But overall markets clearly expect disinflation to set in, and then lower interest rates over the next few years.

Consumers already sense this, of course, and in Sydney the housing market is rising from the lower end as the looming chronic shortage of properties on the market begins to bite.