Tuesday, 28 February 2023

Mortgage credit impulse approaches GFC lows

Credit growth stalls

Credit growth followed up the weak 0.3 per cent seasonally adjusted growth in December with another soft result of just 0.4 per cent for January.


In particular investor mortgage credit growth has been running at close to zero since November, at a time when population growth is running at a record high of about 500,000 per annum. 


The credit impulse for housing is now the worst nick since the global financial crisis, even before the latest interest rate hikes took hold. 


Business credit has also moderated over recent months.


Nothing too surprising here.

New home sales essentially point the way towards a monumental housing shortage, in turn paving the way for Labor to spring their state-subsidised corporate landlords solutions. Yuck. 

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The retail turnover figures came in with a fairly soft report, rebounding a little after the sharp -4 per cent drop in December, but to below September 2022 levels.

Overall, this suggests retail volumes slowed sharply in the second half of 2022.

James Foster reports here.