Saturday, 28 January 2023

Core PCE slowest since...

Inflation slows

This should be one of the key themes for 2023, as high inflation figures tumble back down to earth.

The Fed's preferred measure of US monthly inflation slowed from 4.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent last month. 

The 3-month annualised pace for Core PCE is down to 2.9 per cent, which is the lowest since January 2021.

The headline rate was actually only 0.1 per cent in December, and was running at an annualised pace of just 2.3 per cent in Q4. 

The Fed appears likely to deliver one more 25 basis points rate hike next month, which will take the Funds rate to above the Core PCE figure for the first time since 2019.

Like British Rail...we're getting there!