Tuesday, 15 November 2022

Net arrivals +200k in October

Arrivals continue rebound

These are only provisional figures, but is looks like provisionally there were around 1.22 million arrival trips into Australia in October.

Permanent arrivals migrating to Australia remain sluggish, and are likely to remain so until the new year. 


Source: ABS

It's now winter in Europe and summer in Australia, so departures provisionally declined to around 1.02 million last month.


Source: ABS

The final figures may be revised, but this looks like a net increase of around 200,000 for the month of October, with New South Wales leading the charge. 

Some industries have really struggled to find staff - such as retail and hospitality - but as the arrivals figures begin to ramp up this issue should be resolved in time. 

International student arrivals were 35,560 last month, compared to close to zero a year earlier, underscoring what an extraordinary period we have just lived through. 

Wages growth

Tomorrow's wages growth figures should finally show an increase, from very low levels, as the September quarter is the time of year when newly awarded pay rises usually show up.


The top end of the forecast range could see annual wages growth back up to around 3½ per cent. 

That said, it's probably going to be the best quarter of this cycle as monthly arrivals increase back towards their historic norms of 1.5 million to 2 million per month, bringing the labour force supply back into balance with demand. 


Source: ABS